Jordan Ellenberg’s 2014 book How Not to Be Wrong demonstrates that mathematics is far more than a collection of abstract rules—it’s “the science of not being wrong”. An important theme is the perception of probabilities. Aristotle had already made a crucial insight here:

Aristotle, as usual, was here first: despite lacking any formal notion of probability, he was able to understand that “it is probable that improbable things will happen. Granted this, one might argue that what is improbable is probable.”

Ellenberg, J. (2014). How not to be wrong: The hidden maths of everyday life. Penguin Books, p. 44.